Data inaccuracy quantification and uncertainty propagation for bibliometric indicators

This study introduces an approach to estimate the uncertainty in bibliometric indicator values that is caused by data errors. This approach utilizes Bayesian regression models, estimated from empirical data samples, which are used to predict error-free data. Through direct Monte Carlo simulation -- drawing predicted data from the estimated regression models a large number of times for the same input data -- probability distributions for indicator values can be obtained, which provide the information on their uncertainty due to data errors. It is demonstrated how uncertainty in base quantities, such as the number of publications of a unit of certain document types and the number of citations of a publication, can be propagated along a measurement model into final indicator values. This method can be used to estimate the uncertainty of indicator values due to sources of errors with known error distributions. The approach is demonstrated with simple synthetic examples for instructive purposes and real bibliometric research evaluation data to show its possible application in practice.Comment: 31 pages, 5 figure

HLA and cross-reactive antigen group matching for cadaver kidney allocation

Background. Allocation of cadaver kidneys by graded human leukocyte antigen (HLA) compatibility scoring arguably has had little effect on overall survival while prejudicing the transplant candidacy of African-American and other hard to match populations. Consequently, matching has been proposed of deduced amino acid residues of the individual HLA molecules shared by cross- reactive antigen groups (CREGs). We have examined the circumstances under which compatibility with either method impacted graft survival. Methods. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, we studied the relationship between levels of conventional HLA mismatch and other donor and recipient factors on primary cadaver kidney survival between 1981 and 1995 at the University of Pittsburgh (n=1,780) and in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Scientific Registry during 1991-1995 (n=31,291). The results were compared with those obtained by the matching of amino acid residues that identified CREG-compatible cases with as many as four (but not five and six) HLA mismatches. Results. With more than one HLA mismatch (>85% of patients in both series), most of the survival advantage of a zero mismatch was lost. None of the HLA loci were 'weak.' In the UNOS (but not Pittsburgh) category of one-HLA mismatch (n=1334), a subgroup of CREG-matched recipients (35.3%) had better graft survival than the remaining 64.7%, who were CREG-mismatched. There was no advantage of a CREG match in the two- to four-HLA incompatibility tiers. Better graft survival with tacrolimus was observed in both the Pittsburgh and UNOS series. Conclusions. Obligatory national sharing of cadaver kidneys is justifiable only for zero-HLA-mismatched kidneys. The potential value of CREG matching observed in the one-HLA-mismatched recipients of the UNOS (but not the Pittsburgh) experience deserves further study

Spatial effects should be allowed for in primary care and other community-based cluster RCTS

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Typical advice on the design and analysis of cluster randomized trials (C-RCTs) focuses on allowance for the clustering at the level of the unit of allocation. However often C-RCTs are also organised spatially as may occur in the fields of Public Health and Primary Care where populations may even overlap.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We allowed for spatial effects on the error variance by a multiple membership model. These are a form of hierarchical model in which each lower level unit is a member of more than one higher level unit. Membership may be determined through adjacency or through Euclidean distance of centroids or in other ways such as the proportion of overlapping population. Such models may be estimated for Normal, binary and Poisson responses in Stata (v10 or above) as well as in WinBUGS or MLWin. We used this to analyse a dummy trial and two real, previously published cluster-allocated studies (one allocating general practices within one City and the other allocating general practices within one County) to investigate the extent to which ignoring spatial effects affected the estimate of treatment effect, using different methods for defining membership with Akaike's Information Criterion to determine the "best" model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best fitting model included both a fixed North-South gradient and a random cluster effect for the dummy RCT. For one of the real RCTs the best fitting model included both a random practice effect plus a multiple membership spatial term, while for the other RCT the best fitting model ignored the clustering but included a fixed North-South gradient. Alternative models which fitted only slightly less well all included spatial effects in one form or another, with some variation in parameter estimates (greater when less well fitting models were included).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These particular results are only illustrative. However, we believe when designing C-RCTs in a primary care setting the possibility of spatial effects should be considered in relation to the intervention and response, as well as any explanatory effect of fixed covariates, together with any implications for sample size and methods for planned analyses.</p

Electronic voting to encourage interactive lectures: a randomised trial

Background: Electronic Voting Systems have been used for education in a variety of disciplines. Outcomes from these studies have been mixed. Because results from these studies have been mixed, we examined whether an EVS system could enhance a lecture's effect on educational outcomes. Methods: A cohort of 127 Year 5 medical students at the University of Adelaide was stratified by gender, residency status and academic record then randomised into 2 groups of 64 and 63 students. Each group received consecutive 40-minute lectures on two clinical topics. One group received the EVS for both topics. The other group received traditional teaching only. Evaluation was undertaken with two, 15-question multiple-choice questionnaires (MCQ) assessing knowledge and problem solving and undertaken as a written paper immediately before and after the lectures and repeated online 8–12 weeks later. Standardised institutional student questionnaires were completed for each lecture and independent observers assessed student behaviour during the lectures. Lecturer's opinions were assessed by a questionnaire developed for this study. Results: Two-thirds of students randomised to EVS and 59% of students randomised to traditional lectures attended. One-half of the students in the EVS group and 41% in the traditional group completed all questionnaires. There was no difference in MCQ scores between EVS and traditional lectures (p = 0.785). The cervical cancer lectures showed higher student ranking in favour of EVS in all parameters. The breast cancer lectures showed higher ranking in favour of traditional lectures in 5 of 7 parameters (p < 0.001). The observed higher-order lecturer-students interactions were increased in the EVS lecture for one lecturer and reduced for the other. Both lecturers felt that the EVS lectures were difficult to prepare, that they were able to keep to time in the traditional lectures, that the educational value of both lecture styles was similar, and that they were neutral-to-slightly favourably disposed to continue with the EVS technology. The 2 lecturers disagreed regarding the ease of preparation of the traditional lecture, their ability to keep to time in the EVS lecture, and personal satisfaction with the EVS lecture. The lecturers felt that EVS encouraged student participation and helped identify where students were having difficulty. Conclusion: In this setting, EVS technology used in large group lectures did not offer significant advantages over the more traditional lecture format.Paul M Duggan, Edward Palmer and Peter Devit

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Intermediate Care Clinics for Diabetes (ICCD) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background World-wide healthcare systems are faced with an epidemic of type 2 diabetes. In the United Kingdom, clinical care is primarily provided by general practitioners (GPs) rather than hospital specialists. Intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD) potentially provide a model for supporting GPs in their care of people with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes and in their management of cardiovascular risk factors. This study aims to (1) compare patients with type 2 diabetes registered with practices that have access to an ICCD service with those that have access only to usual hospital care; (2) assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and (3) explore the views and experiences of patients, health professionals and other stakeholders. Methods/Design This two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (with integral economic evaluation and qualitative study) is set in general practices in three UK Primary Care Trusts. Practices are randomized to one of two groups with patients referred to either an ICCD (intervention) or to hospital care (control). Intervention group: GP practices in the intervention arm have the opportunity to refer patients to an ICCD - a multidisciplinary team led by a specialist nurse and a diabetologist. Patients are reviewed and managed in the ICCD for a short period with a goal of improving diabetes and cardiovascular risk factor control and are then referred back to practice. or Control group: Standard GP care, with referral to secondary care as required, but no access to ICCD. Participants are adults aged 18 years or older who have type 2 diabetes that is difficult for their GPs to control. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants reaching three risk factor targets: HbA1c (≤7.0%); blood pressure (<140/80); and cholesterol (<4 mmol/l), at the end of the 18-month intervention period. The main secondary outcomes are the proportion of participants reaching individual risk factor targets and the overall 10-year risks for coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke assessed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Other secondary outcomes include body mass index and waist circumference, use of medication, reported smoking, emotional adjustment, patient satisfaction and views on continuity, costs and health related quality of life. We aimed to randomize 50 practices and recruit 2,555 patients

Effectiveness of Provider and Community Interventions to Improve Treatment of Uncomplicated Malaria in Nigeria: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

The World Health Organization recommends that malaria be confirmed by parasitological diagnosis before treatment using Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT). Despite this, many health workers in malaria endemic countries continue to diagnose malaria based on symptoms alone. This study evaluates interventions to help bridge this gap between guidelines and provider practice. A stratified cluster-randomized trial in 42 communities in Enugu state compared 3 scenarios: Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) with basic instruction (control); RDTs with provider training (provider arm); and RDTs with provider training plus a school-based community intervention (provider-school arm). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients treated according to guidelines, a composite indicator requiring patients to be tested for malaria and given treatment consistent with the test result. The primary outcome was evaluated among 4946 (93%) of the 5311 patients invited to participate. A total of 40 communities (12 in control, 14 per intervention arm) were included in the analysis. There was no evidence of differences between the three arms in terms of our composite indicator (p = 0.36): stratified risk difference was 14% (95% CI -8.3%, 35.8%; p = 0.26) in the provider arm and 1% (95% CI -21.1%, 22.9%; p = 0.19) in the provider-school arm, compared with control. The level of testing was low across all arms (34% in control; 48% provider arm; 37% provider-school arm; p = 0.47). Presumptive treatment of uncomplicated malaria remains an ingrained behaviour that is difficult to change. With or without extensive supporting interventions, levels of testing in this study remained critically low. Governments and researchers must continue to explore alternative ways of encouraging providers to deliver appropriate treatment and avoid the misuse of valuable medicines